3. Feedstock supply assumptions#

This page summarises the TIMES-NZ feedstock supply assumptions used for biofuel and bioenergy supply limits.

3.1. Scenario summary#

Table 102 TIMES feedstock supply assumptions by scenario#
Scenario	Feedstock supply assumption	TIMES implementation
`Steady`	Uses the baseyear biofuel supply assumptions.	Variable feedstocks use Scion’s 2024–2053 regional biomass projections[1] with `Recoverability factor 2 (% of gross)`. Constant supply overrides are applied for municipal waste, animal manure, waste oil, and tallow waste.
`Shift`	Uses the higher bioenergy supply assumptions represented by `AdditionalBioenergySupply`.	Variable feedstocks use `Recoverability factor 1 (% of gross)`. Municipal waste and animal manure constant supply assumptions are multiplied by four. Waste oil and tallow waste assumptions are unchanged. The additional scenario applies from 2026 onward.

3.2. Feedstocks covered#

The supply assumptions above apply across the feedstock processes used in the biofuel supply module:

Woody residues and wood supply streams
Agricultural residues
Municipal wood waste and municipal organic waste
Animal manure
Waste oil
Tallow waste

3.3. Detailed assumptions#

Table 103 Detailed TIMES feedstock supply assumptions#
Feedstock group	`Steady`	`Shift`
Woody residues, agricultural residues, and municipal wood waste	Derived from Scion’s 2024–2053 regional biomass projections and scaled using `Recoverability factor 2 (% of gross)`.	Derived from the same Scion’s 2024–2053 regional biomass projections and scaled using `Recoverability factor 1 (% of gross)`.
Municipal organic waste (`MINMNCWST01`)	Fixed at 5.035 PJ/year, split 77% North Island and 23% South Island.	Fixed at 20.14 PJ/year, split 77% North Island and 23% South Island.
Animal manure (`MINANMMNR00`)	Fixed at 7.56 PJ/year, split 56% North Island and 44% South Island.	Fixed at 30.24 PJ/year, split 56% North Island and 44% South Island.
Waste oil (`MINOILWST00`)	Fixed from 2026 at 0.234 PJ/year, split 77% North Island and 23% South Island.	Unchanged from `Steady`.
Tallow waste (`MINOILWST01`)	Fixed from 2026 at 6.240 PJ/year, with all supply in the South Island.	Unchanged from `Steady`.