3. Demand projections#

Demand projections for the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector are based on detailed projections from the Second Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP2) detailed results[1].

TIMES demand projections are all based on activity indexes from the base year (currently 2023). For workbook-based mappings, the ERP2 series is converted to a demand index by dividing each year by the 2023 value. Most TIMES-NZ Steady mappings use the ERP2 Baseline scenario, while Dairy Cattle Farming uses ERP2 Baseline high; the Shift scenario uses ERP2 Baseline low. Where the ERP2 workbook only provides values for selected years, annual values between those years are linearly interpolated.

Agricultural subsector demand profiles are as follows:

  • Dairy Cattle Farming tracks the ERP2 Total dairy cattle series[1].

  • Livestock Farming tracks ERP2 Sheep and beef 'stock units'.

  • Horticulture (Outdoor) tracks ERP2 Horticulture.

  • Indoor Cropping uses the same ERP2 Horticulture series as a proxy.

  • Forestry and Logging tracks ERP2 Forestry (million m3) / Harvested timber (TRV).

  • Other Agriculture tracks ERP2 Other agriculture / Total.

  • Fishing, Hunting and Trapping remains constant at an index of 1.0 in both scenarios, reflecting the assumption that activity is broadly constrained by the Quota Management System (QMS)[2].

Table 6 ERP2 category mappings for Steady and Shift scenarios#

Subsector

Steady

Shift

Dairy Cattle Farming

Baseline high / Total dairy cattle (ERP2)

Baseline low / Total dairy cattle (ERP2)

Livestock Farming

Baseline / Sheep and beef ‘stock units’

Baseline low / Sheep and beef ‘stock units’

Horticulture (Outdoor)

Baseline / Horticulture

Baseline low / Horticulture

Forestry and Logging

Baseline / Forestry (million m3) / Harvested timber (TRV)

Baseline low / Forestry (million m3) / Harvested timber (TRV)

Indoor Cropping

Baseline / Horticulture

Baseline low / Horticulture

Fishing, Hunting and Trapping

Constant index = 1

Constant index = 1

Other Agriculture

Baseline / Other agriculture / Total

Baseline low / Other agriculture / Total
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